A statistical analysis of wind speed data using Burr, generalized gamma, and Weibull distributions in Antakya, Turkey

Abstract

The wind energy potential of the Antakya area was statistically analyzed based 8 years of wind data sets (2002–2009). The 4-parameter Burr, 3-parameter generalized gamma, and conventional Weibull distributions were regarded as suitable statistical models for describing wind speed profiles. The suitability of the models was tested by R 2 , RMSE, chi-squared, and Kolmogorov–Smirnov analysis. According to goodness-of-fit tests, the Burr distribution was found to be more suitable than the generalized gamma or Weibull distributions for representing the actual probability of wind speed data for Antakya. Based on the capacity factors estimated by the Burr model at a hub height, the power generation potential of a commercial 330-kW wind turbine was also determined. The results show that the available wind energy potential to generate electricity in Antakya is low; consequently, wind power would be suitable only for stand-alone electrical and mechanical applications, such as water pumps, battery charging units, and local consumption in off-grid areas.

The wind energy potential of the Antakya area was statistically analyzed based 8 years of wind data sets (2002–2009). The 4-parameter Burr, 3-parameter generalized gamma, and conventional Weibull distributions were regarded as suitable statistical models for describing wind speed profiles. The suitability of the models was tested by R 2 , RMSE, chi-squared, and Kolmogorov–Smirnov analysis. According to goodness-of-fit tests, the Burr distribution was found to be more suitable than the generalized gamma or Weibull distributions for representing the actual probability of wind speed data for Antakya. Based on the capacity factors estimated by the Burr model at a hub height, the power generation potential of a commercial 330-kW wind turbine was also determined. The results show that the available wind energy potential to generate electricity in Antakya is low; consequently, wind power would be suitable only for stand-alone electrical and mechanical applications, such as water pumps, battery charging units, and local consumption in off-grid areas.