Darbe Neden Olur'u yeniden düşünmek : 15 Temmuz darbe girişimi üzerine bir değerlendirme
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Politik olay ve olguları temelinden kötü veya iyi olarak yargılamak, bu olayları bağlı oldukları toplumsal, siyasal ve ekonomik değişkenlerden bağımsız olarak değerlendirmek, bu yöndeki çabaları vasatlık ve kısırlıkla malul hale getirecektir. Buna karşın olayı, içerisinde gerçekleştiği dönemi, bu dönemin sosyal ve siyasal şartları altında, ekonomik durumu da gözeterek değerlendirmek, olay hakkında daha yerinde ve kıymetli, anlamlı sonuçlar üreten adımlar olarak sayılabilecektir. Darbeler ve darbe girişimleri de bu tür olayların en önemlileri arasında sayılacak önceliğe elbette sahiptirler. Bu çalışma, bu alandaki yazın eksikliğini gidermek üzere darbelerin hangi sosyal, ekonomik ve siyasal şartlar altında olgunluk gösterir hareketler olduğunu, bu alanda neredeyse genel bir şemaya ulaşmak üzere çalışmalar yapmış olan Zimmermann'ın eserlerinden hareketle irdelemek amacı gözetmektedir. Ülkemizde yaşanan olayların akabinde 15 Temmuz Darbe Girişimi'nin daha doğru ve net bir şekilde anlaşılmasının yanında bir daha bu tür demokrasi ve özgürlük karşıtı faaliyetlerin yaşanmaması adına engelleyici bir rehber olması niyetiyle, çalışmamızın uygulama kısmında 15 Temmuz Darbe Girişimi incelenecektir. Ayrıca çalışmamız, pek çok farklı kıtadan ve ülkeden darbe örneklerinin analize tabii tutulduğu Zimmermann'ın eserinin bilinirliğini sağlamaya katkı vermeye ek olarak, 15 Temmuz Darbe Girişiminin de uluslararası boyuta taşınmasına yardımcı olacak ve diğer darbelerle karşılaştırmalı bir nitelik arz etmesine vesile olacaktır.Political events and phenomena are issues which need to be assessed in respect to historical, social, political, economic and cultural contexts. To attribute "bad" or "good" to political events without making such an assessment mentioned before will not lead to further explanations leading to shallow, incomplete and misleading analyzes and evaluations. Coups and coup attempts have the qualities of "event" and "phenomenon" and are one of the things to be avoided in evaluating and analyzing unilateral and approaches that lack of general perspectives. Aim of the Study This part of our study aims to briefly discuss the "A Causal Model for Military Coups D'etat" model that Zimmermann developed by examining different examples from different regions. In this way, it will be possible to understand what factors the model is developed on and to synthesize the validity of these obtained variables for the July 15 Coup Attempt. This study focuses on investigating the social, economic and political conditions under which coups and attempts are grown and also contributing to the literature in this area, based on the work of Zimmermann, who has worked on this field to reach a general schema. Following the events in Turkey, the July 15 Coup Attempt will be examined at the implementation part of this work, with the intention of being able to understand more accurately and clearly the 15 July Coup Attempt and being an obstructive guide to prevent such activities against democracy and freedom. Furthermore, in addition to the popularity of Zimmermann's work, where many different continental and national coup examples are being analyzed, it will also contribute to the internationalization of the July 15 Coup Attempt and provide getting a comparative perspective. Limits and Scope of the Study Zimmermann talks about some of the major glitches for the model he has created. This model indicates that it may have problems at the beginning firstly definitions of concepts. Another sensitive point is the way in which the dependent variables are determined. For example, it is difficult or even almost impossible to unravel the implications of political institutionalization or of the dependent variables that are listed under the regime's weakness, either directly or indirectly. The economic, political, social and state-related situations have very complicated relationships to investigate and research one another. In addition, almost all of the concepts mentioned in the study are interrelated. From this, it becomes impossible to abstract and evaluate one of the concepts from the other. Thus, it is difficult to find out what the concepts contribute to the model. Contributions to the Model Zimmermann's reference to the coup and coup attempts used as a source of certain criteria. These criteria are the successful, unsuccessful, and contractual coup descriptions of Thompson (1975). This model contains multifactorial subheadings (see schema attached), but tidied up to collect the model under these main frames: ? Military Activities ? Administrative Activities ? Social-Political Activities ? Economic Activities ? External Activities Then, each and all headings were evaluated in the context of the example of July 15. Findings as follow: - Military Action in Turkey: Firstly Turkey is evaluated for military activities, the number of personnel will be taken into account. Turkey is obliged to maintain serious figures on the number of personnel of security and armed forces required by security policies. According to the model, the fact that the number of military personnel alone is high does not mean any positive correlation for the impact, but it seems to find its meaning when combined with other variables. Secondly, it is the amount of budget allocated to the security of the Ministry of Defense. Although this amount has been relatively reduced compared to previous years, it maintains its importance as a proportion. As a result of historical and social ties in Turkey, the armed forces have long been a leader in both society and politics, and they are actively seeking to become actors by taking active roles there. - Governance Activities in Turkey: Under this heading, countries have taken into consideration factors such as the election period or the frequent elections, the election of the president of the country to a political identity approved or accepted by the military, or the election of the president for a long period. In Turkey, too, the table formed by the June 7, 2015 General Elections before the July 15 coup attempt in this issue confirms this part of the Model. - Socioeconomic and Political Activities in Turkey: The subtitles mentioned in the socioeconomic and political activities include political discrimination against ethno linguistic division, civil war, exploitation history, past military conflicts, the existence of strong and harmonious political institutions, politicians' mistakes, corruption, external dependence, ineffective and inefficient government machinery and political participation and political institutionalization. Turkey has a geography where language, ethnicity, religion and cultural diversity are high because it is late in nationalization movement in terms of language and ethnic origin. But the ethno linguistic division of Hibbs (1973) is the conflicts that arise mostly due to colonial history in newly emerging countries. Since Turkey does not have such a history of division, we cannot talk about a positive effect that has emerged with this kind of pressure in the coup attempt. Turkey stands out among the listed items with the presence of military coups in its history. In order to examine the existence of strong and harmonious political institutions and to determine its impact on July 15th, it will be necessary to briefly mention the historical background. The effectiveness and efficiency of the government mechanism in Turkey is shaped by the stability, economic and security policies. Another important variable under political activity is the critical balance between political participation and political institutionalization. Although participation in Turkey has increased rapidly in recent years, it has not been met with sufficient political institutionalization, causing the crises that open the door to the coup. - Economic Activities in Turkey: Economic reasons have become one of the main factors affecting politics and administration in Turkey. Generally speaking, recent fluctuations in Turkey's growth rates, inflation data, investment attractiveness, foreign and domestic borrowing status, structural reform expectations, money and economic policies, geopolitical stability and confidence, elections and GDP, can be said to be the main factors affecting their grades. Before the coup, we can observe that economic institutions’ (Fitch, Standart&Poors and Moody’s) reports in Turkey are generally static, but they have dropped the postcoup credit rating quickly. After the coup, they followed the economic developments and stated that Turkey has survived the shock. This data can be tried in the light of the fact that Turkey was not threatened by an economic crisis or crisis in the pre-coup period when the coup succeeded. On the contrary, Turkey had the ability to show resistance even at that time. - External Activities in Turkey: The last variable is activities such as foreign international veto power and war situation conditions that can be summarized as external activities. Turkey has come to discuss the interventions of foreign states in relation to the past Coups and has not hesitated to express the intervention of similar external intervention for the 15th of July Impact Initiative both in the state and in the public opinion. Conclusion At the conclusion of this article, which we attempt to evaluate the July 15 Coup Attempt on the model framework put forward by Zimmermann, we have pointed out separately in terms of each subtitles we suggested. We finally saw that July 15th match in a position between the Zimmermann’s model in certain places to make a coup attempt, even if it failed in Turkey. We cannot decide that if the positive items of the substances we will refer to below are negative, we have enough environment for the coup to take place. We can say that the result is a meaningful composition with no research or data on what conditions would be sufficient for the Coup: ? Positive : in terms of Military Action in Turkey ? Negative : in terms of Governance Activities in Turkey ? Positive and Negative sides : in terms of Socioeconomic and Political Activities in Turkey ? Negative : in terms of Economic Activities in Turkey ? Negative : in terms of External Activities in Turkey To put it briefly, on July 15, Turkey could not provide sufficient conditions for the emergence and the fulfillment of a coup according to the models set by Zimmermann. The positive aspects of Turkey's ability to govern, economic competences, resistance to external activities, and social political activities, even if it is a coup attempt in the country, certainly shows a dead birth, even though it seems to be supported by military support.
SourceTurkish Studies (Elektronik)