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Öğe Effect of Economic Policy Uncertainty on Stock Returns: Analysing the Moderating Role of Government Size(Vysoka Skola Ekonomicka, 2024) Karaomer, Yunus; Guzel, Arif EserThis study investigates whether the response of stock returns to economic policy uncertainty depends on the level of government size in the economy. Although there is a consensus in the literature that stock markets react negatively to policy -related uncertainties, the factors that determine the magnitude of this effect have been ignored. This study is the first to demonstrate that the magnitude of this effect depends on the size of the government in the economy. In the study, data for the period 1997Q1-2021Q4 pertaining to 18 countries are used. According to results of fixed -effects estimations with Driscoll-Kraay robust standard errors, economic policy uncertainty affects stock returns negatively. In addition, the coefficient of interaction term formed by the variables of policy uncertainty and government size is also negative and significant. These results indicate that the negative response of stock returns to policy uncertainty grows as government size increases. The sensitivity analysis results show that the findings are not sensitive to the estimations made by alternative approaches and are therefore robust. The findings of the study contain important implications for policymakers. Investors can also benefit from the results at the point of international asset allocation against future policy -related uncertainties.Öğe The impact of economic, social, and political globalization and democracy on life expectancy in low-income countries: are sustainable development goals contradictory?(Springer, 2021) Guzel, Arif Eser; Arslan, Unal; Acaravci, AliThe 17 Sustainable Development Goals announced by the United Nations are important guides for the development processes of developing countries. However, achieving all of these goals is only possible if the goals are consistent with each other. It has been observed in the literature that possible contradictions between these goals are ignored. Therefore, the main purpose of this study is to investigate whether two sustainable development goals (SDGs) of the UN are contradictory or supporting each other in low-income countries. These SDGs are Good Health and Well-Being (SDG3) and Partnerships for the Goals (SDG17). For this purpose, the role of globalization and democracy in life expectancy is empirically investigated in 16 low-income countries over the period 1970-2017. While globalization has been used as an indicator of the partnership between countries, democracy has been used as an indicator of accountability and cooperation between governments and societies. According to estimations of the continuous-updated fully modified (CUP-FM) and bias-adjusted ordinary least squares (BA-OLS), globalization and its subcomponents such as economic, social, and political globalization affect life expectancy positively. Democracy also increases life expectancy in those countries. The GDP per capita is also used as a control variable. Our results show that a higher level of per capita income is positively associated with higher levels of life expectancy. In conclusion, no contradiction was found between SDG3 and SDG17 in those countries. Achieving a healthier society requires economic, social, and political integration between governments and societies.Öğe On the nexus between exchange rate and income distribution in Turkey: ARDL bound testing analysis(Univ Islam Indonesia, 2019) Guzel, Arif Eser; Arslan, UnalIf we talk about the importance of variables in economic development, income distribution is not the second to economic growth, especially in emerging countries. These emerging countries are generally characterized by the volatility of exchange rates, especially after most of the countries adopted floating exchange rates system. This paper investigates the impact of an increases in dollar value on income distribution using annual data in the period 1990-2016 for Turkey via an ARDL model and bound testing analysis. In constructing the empirical model, it also considers the impact of GDP per capita on the dependent variable. Findings/Originality: The paper finds that an increase in dollar value leads to a more unequal income distribution in Turkey. The dollar holds an important place in Turkey's foreign trade. Therefore, the changes in the value of dollar results in significant welfare effects.Öğe Renewable, non-renewable energy consumption and economic growth nexus in G7: fresh evidence from CS-ARDL(Springer Heidelberg, 2021) Okumus, Ilyas; Guzel, Arif Eser; Destek, Mehmet AkifThis study investigates the effects of renewable energy (REN) consumption and non-renewable energy (NREN) consumption on economic growth in G7 countries with annual data covering the period 1980-2016 using a new panel data estimator that provides robust results under cross-sectional dependence, slope heterogeneity, and can be used whether series are integrated in different orders. In addition, the causality between the variables is analyzed with the panel bootstrap Granger causality method takes cross-sectional dependency and slope heterogeneity into account. According to Cross-sectionally Augmented Autoregressive Distributed Lag (CS-ARDL) results, the coefficients of REN and NREN consumption are positive and statistically significant in both the short- and long-run. Furthermore, NREN consumption has a greater impact on enhancing economic growth than REN consumption. The panel bootstrap causality analysis reveals that the growth hypothesis (GH) is valid in REN in Canada, Italy, and the USA; neutrality is valid in REN in France, Japan, and the UK; the feedback hypothesis (FE) is valid for REN only in Germany. For NREN, the GH is valid for Canada, France, and Germany; the conservation hypothesis (CH) is valid in Italy and the UK. Finally, the FH is valid in Japan and the USA.Öğe Revisiting the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis in OECD countries: the role of renewable, non-renewable energy, and oil prices(Springer Heidelberg, 2020) Erdogan, Sinan; Okumus, Ilyas; Guzel, Arif EserEnvironment-economic growth nexus is one of the main concerns of the researchers in the modern era. Although there are several studies in this field, discussions are far from being reached a consensus. The main purpose of this study is to investigate the role of economic growth, renewable and non-renewable energy consumption, oil prices, and trade openness on CO2 emissions in 25 Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries over the period 1990-2014. We provide a comparative panel data evidence using both the first- and second-generation estimation methods. The Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) and Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) estimations indicate that the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis is valid in OECD countries. However, the Augmented Mean Group (AMG) estimator revealed that the EKC hypothesis is invalid. The AMG estimator is a second-generation estimator and provides robust results under cross-sectional dependence compared to the first-generation methods; therefore, the EKC hypothesis is invalid. Our additional findings show that rising renewable energy consumption and oil prices mitigate CO2 emissions while non-renewable energy consumption increases it according to all estimators. No significant relationship is found between trade openness and CO2 emissions.Öğe Revisiting the pollution haven hypothesis in ASEAN-5 countries: new insights from panel data analysis(Springer Heidelberg, 2020) Guzel, Arif Eser; Okumus, IlyasPollution haven hypothesis (PHH) has been investigated extensively in the existing literature due to global environmental issues such as global warming and climate change. However, there is still no consensus on whether this hypothesis is valid. Therefore, the aim of this study is to examine the validity of the PHH in ASEAN-5 countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand) covering the period of 1981-2014. It is utilized the up-to-date panel data techniques taking cross-sectional dependence and slope heterogeneity into account to test the relationship. According to the results of CCEMG and AMG estimators, the validity of the PHH is confirmed in ASEAN-5 countries. The increase in foreign direct investments (FDI) increases environmental degradation in these countries. Our additional findings show that the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis (EKC) is also valid in these countries. There is an inverted U shape between economic growth and CO2 emissions. In addition, energy consumption exacerbates CO2 emissions.Öğe The role of agricultural productivity in economic growth in middle-income countries: An empirical investigation(Univ Islam Indonesia, 2021) Guzel, Arif Eser; Akin, Cemil SerhatPurpose - This study investigates the role of agricultural productivity in economic growth in middle-income countries. Methods - This study utilizes the data of 53 middle-income countries over the period 1991-2017 and provides robust estimations using second-generation panel data methods considering crosssectional dependency. Findings - The estimation results of the Common Correlated Effects Mean Group (CCEMG), Dynamic-CCEMG, and biased-corrected form of Dynamic-CCEMG, suggest that agricultural productivity is the main engine of economic growth. Additional findings show that economic growth is positively associated with both physical capital and human capital. This paper does not find any significant relationship between trade openness and economic growth. Originality - This study focuses on analyzing the effect of agricultural productivity neglected mainly in recent studies on economic growth. This paper develops a second-generation estimator that considers cross-sectional dependence.
