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    Causality between Natural Gas Prices and Stock Market Returns in Turkey
    (Springer International Publishing Ag, 2013) Kandir, Serkan Yilmaz; Ozturk, Ilhan; Acaravci, Ali
    This study investigates the long-run relationship between natural gas prices and stock returns in Turkey by using Johansen and Juselius, and bounds testing approach of cointegration tests using quarterly data from 1995: 1 to 2009 : 3. Empirical findings suggest that there is no a unique long-term equilibrium relationship between natural gas prices, real GDP, real exchange rates and stock returns. On the other hand, Toda - Yamamoto causality approach results indicate that a unidirectional Granger causal relationship from stock prices to real GDP and natural gas prices and a unidirectional Granger causal relationship from real GDP to real exchange rates seem to exist in Turkey.
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    Natural gas prices and stock prices: Evidence from EU-15 countries
    (Elsevier, 2012) Acaravci, Ali; Ozturk, Ilhan; Kandir, Serkan Yilmaz
    This study investigates the long-run relationship between natural gas prices and stock prices by using the Johansen and Juselius cointegration test and error-correction based Granger causality models for the EU-15 countries. We employ quarterly data covering the period from 1990:1 to 2008:1. Empirical findings suggest that there is a unique long-term equilibrium relationship between natural gas prices, industrial production and stock prices in Austria, Denmark, Finland, Germany and Luxembourg. However, no relationship is found between these variables in the other ten EU-15 countries. Although we detect a significant long-run relationship between stock prices and natural gas prices, Granger causality test results imply an indirect Granger causal relationship between these two variables. In addition, we investigate the Granger causal relationship between stock returns, industrial production growth and natural gas price increase for Austria, Denmark, Finland, Germany and Luxembourg. As a result, increase in natural gas prices seem to impact industrial production growth at the first place. In turn, industrial production growth appears to affect stock returns. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.