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Öğe Analiza parit??ii puterii de cump?rare din ??rile în tranzi?ie: Probe evidentiate în bresele structurale(Editura ASE Bucuresti, 2010) Acaravci, Ali; Ozturk, Ilhan[No abstract available]Öğe An application of Thirlwall's law to the South African economy: Evidence from ARDL bounds testing approach(Academic Journals, 2010) Ozturk, Ilhan; Acaravci, AliThis paper applies Thirlwall's basic balance-of-payments constraint growth model to South Africa economic growth for the period of 1984:1 - 2006:1 by using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Bounds Testing approach. The empirical results reveal that import is cointegrated with relative price and income, and the equilibrium growth rates coincide with actual growth rates. Our empirical results also support the Thirlwall's hypothesis which states that balance of payments position of the South African economy is the main constraint on its economic growth. As a policy implication, a successful economic growth policy will permit South Africa to have a rapid growth in demand and supply without suffering deterioration in its balance of payments.Öğe BALANCE OF PAYMENTS CONSTRAINED GROWTH IN TURKEY: EVIDENCE FROM ARDL BOUND TESTING APPROACH(Vilnius Univ, 2009) Acaravci, Ali; Ozturk, IlhanThe aim of this study is to empirically test lite validity of Thirlwall's Law in Turkey during the period of 1980:1-2006:4 using an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Bounds testing approach. The empirical results reveal that import is cointegrated with relative price and income. The estimates of the long run elasticities from this function are used to compute the equilibrium growth rate. The difference between the equilibrium and actual economic growth rates are small. Nevertheless, results from regressions of equilibrium growth rates indicate that the Thirlwall's law does not hold for Turkey.Öğe Balance of payments constrained growth in turkey: Evidence from ardl bound testing approach(2009) Acaravci, Ali; Ozturk, IlhanThe aim of this study is to empirically test the validity of Thirlwall's Law in Turkey during the period of 1980:1-2006:4 using an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Bounds testing approach. The empirical results reveal that import is cointegrated with relative price and income. The estimates of the long run elasticities from this function are used to compute the equilibrium growth rate. The difference between the equilibrium and actual economic growth rates are small Nevertheless, results from regressions of equilibrium growth rates indicate that the Thirlwall's law does not hold for Turkey.Öğe The causal relationship between energy consumption and GDP in Albania, Bulgaria, Hungary and Romania: Evidence from ARDL bound testing approach(Elsevier Sci Ltd, 2010) Ozturk, Ilhan; Acaravci, AliThe purpose of this study is to investigate the causal relationship between energy and economic growth in Albania, Bulgaria, Hungary and Romania from 1980 to 2006 by employing energy use per capita, electric power consumption per capita and real GDP per capita variables. To examine this linkage, we use the two-step procedure from the Engle and Granger model: In first step, we explore the long-run relationships between the variables by using recently developed autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach of cointegration. Secondly, we employ a dynamic vector error correction (VEC) model to test causal relationships between variables. The bounds test yields evidence of a long-run relationship between energy use per capita and real GDP per capita and evidence of two-way (bidirectional) strong Granger causality between these variables only in Hungary. On the other hand, the ARDL bounds test results show that there is no a unique long-term or equilibrium relationship between energy consumption variables and real GDP per capita in Albania, Bulgaria and Romania. In other words, no cointegration exists between these variables in these three countries. The econometric analysis suggests that any causal relationships within dynamic error correction model for Albania. Bulgaria and Romania cannot be estimated. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.Öğe Causality between Natural Gas Prices and Stock Market Returns in Turkey(Springer International Publishing Ag, 2013) Kandir, Serkan Yilmaz; Ozturk, Ilhan; Acaravci, AliThis study investigates the long-run relationship between natural gas prices and stock returns in Turkey by using Johansen and Juselius, and bounds testing approach of cointegration tests using quarterly data from 1995: 1 to 2009 : 3. Empirical findings suggest that there is no a unique long-term equilibrium relationship between natural gas prices, real GDP, real exchange rates and stock returns. On the other hand, Toda - Yamamoto causality approach results indicate that a unidirectional Granger causal relationship from stock prices to real GDP and natural gas prices and a unidirectional Granger causal relationship from real GDP to real exchange rates seem to exist in Turkey.Öğe CO2 emissions, energy consumption and economic growth in Turkey(Pergamon-Elsevier Science Ltd, 2010) Ozturk, Ilhan; Acaravci, AliThis paper examines the long run and causal relationship issues between economic growth, carbon emissions, energy consumption and employment ratio in Turkey by using autoregressive distributed lag bounds testing approach of cointegration. Empirical results for Turkey over the period 1968-2005 suggest an evidence of a long-run relationship between the variables at 5% significance level in Turkey. The estimated income elasticity of carbon emissions per capita is -0.606 and the income elasticity of energy consumption per capita is 1.375. Results for the existence and direction of Granger causality show that neither carbon emissions per capita nor energy consumption per capita cause real GDP per capita, but employment ratio causes real GDP per capita in the short run. In addition, EKC hypothesis at causal framework by using a linear logarithmic model is not valid in Turkish case. The overall results indicates that energy conservation policies, such as rationing energy consumption and controlling carbon dioxide emissions, are likely to have no adverse effect on the real output growth of Turkey. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.Öğe The demand for money in transition economies(Inst Economic Forecasting, 2008) Ozturk, Ilhan; Acaravci, AliThis paper examines the long-run determinants of the,demand for money in ten transition countries using panel data for the 1994-2005 period. Using panel unit root tests we rejected the null hypothesis of the nonstationarity and employed the feasible generalized least squares (FGLS) model. Consistent with theoretical postulates, it is found that (a) the demand for money in the long-run, positively responds to real GDP and inversely to the inflation and the real effective exchange rate and (b) the long-run income elasticity is about unity.Öğe Electricity consumption and economic growth nexus: A multivariate analysis for Turkey(Editura ASE Bucuresti, 2012) Acaravci, Ali; Ozturk, IlhanThis study examines the short-run and long-run causality issues between electricity consumption and economic growth in Turkey for 1968-2006 period by using Granger causality models augmented with a lagged error-correction term. The bounds F-test for cointegration test yields evidence of a long-run relationship between employment ratio, electricity consumption per capita and real GDP per capita. The overall results from the three error-correction based Granger causality models show that there is an evidence of unidirectional short-run, long-run and strong causalities running from the electricity consumption per capita to real GDP per capita. But, there is no causal evidence from the real GDP per capita to electricity consumption per capita. In other words, "Growth hypothesis" is confirmed in Turkey. This suggests that electricity consumption plays an important role in economic growth. © 2011, Editura Cefin.Öğe ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH NEXUS: A MULTIVARIATE ANALYSIS FOR TURKEY(Editura Ase, 2012) Acaravci, Ali; Ozturk, IlhanThis study examines the short-run and long-run causality issues between electricity consumption and economic growth in Turkey for 1968-2006 period by using Granger causality models augmented with a lagged error-correction term. The bounds F-test for cointegration test yields evidence of a long-run relationship between employment ratio, electricity consumption per capita and real GDP per capita. The overall results from the three error-correction based Granger causality models show that there is an evidence of unidirectional short-run, long-run and strong causalities running from the electricity consumption per capita to real GDP per capita. But, there is no causal evidence from the real GDP per capita to electricity consumption per capita. In other words, Growth hypothesis is confirmed in Turkey. This suggests that electricity consumption plays an important role in economic growth.Öğe Electricity consumption and real GDP causality nexus: Evidence from ARDL bounds testing approach for 11 MENA countries(Elsevier Sci Ltd, 2011) Ozturk, Ilhan; Acaravci, AliThis paper investigates the short-run and long-run causality issues between electricity consumption and economic growth in the selected 11 Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries by using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach of cointegration and vector error-correction models. It employs annual data covering the period from 1971 to 2006. The unit root tests results indicate that some of the variables for Algeria, Jordan, Tunisia and United Arab Emirates do not satisfy the underlying assumptions of the ARDL bounds testing approach of cointegration methodology before proceeding to the estimation stage. Thus, we drop these countries from the ARDL bounds testing approach of cointegration and causality analysis. The cointegration test results show that there is no cointegration between the electricity consumption and the economic growth in three of the seven countries (Iran, Morocco and Syria). Thus, causal relationship cannot be estimated for these countries. However, the cointegration and causal relationship is found in four countries (Egypt, Israel, Oman and Saudi Arabia). The overall results indicate that there is no relationship between the electricity consumption and the economic growth in most of the MENA countries. Further evidence indicates that policies for energy conservation can have a little or no impact on economic growth in most of the MENA countries. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.Öğe Electricity consumption-growth nexus: Evidence from panel data for transition countries(Elsevier Science Bv, 2010) Acaravci, Ali; Ozturk, IlhanThis paper investigates the long-run relationship and causality issues between electricity consumption and economic growth in 15 Transition countries (Albania, Belarus, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Macedonia, Moldova, Poland, Romania, Russian Federation, Serbia, Slovak Republic and Ukraine) by using the Pedroni panel cointegration method for the 1990-2006 period. Results suggest that the Pedroni panel cointegration tests do not confirm a long-term equilibrium relationship between electricity consumption per capita and real GDP per capita. Moreover, since no cointegration was found, error-correction mechanisms plus causality tests cannot be run for further steps in the long-term to investigate the causality between electricity consumption and economic growth. Overall, it can be said that the electricity consumption related policies have no effect or relation on the level of real output in the long run for these countries. As a conclusion, the literature has conflicting results and there is no consensus either on the existence or the direction of causality between electricity consumption and economic growth. Thus, the findings of this study have important policy implications and it shows that this issue still deserves further attention in future research. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.Öğe Energy consumption, CO2 emissions, economic growth, and foreign trade relationship in Cyprus and Malta(Taylor & Francis Inc, 2016) Ozturk, Ilhan; Acaravci, AliThis paper examines the long-run and causal relationship issues between economic growth, carbon emissions, energy consumption, foreign trade ratio, and employment ratio in Cyprus and Malta by using autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach of cointegration and error-correction-based Granger causality models. Empirical results over the period 1980-2006 suggest an evidence of a long-run relationship between the variables at 5% significance level only in Malta. Thus, Granger causality models are estimated only for Malta. Results for the existence and direction of Granger causality show that the causality runs from carbon emissions, energy consumption, foreign trade ratio, and employment ratio to economic growth but not vice versa in Malta. The overall results indicate that energy conservation policies, such as rationing energy consumption and controlling carbon dioxide emissions, are likely to have no adverse effect on the real output growth of Malta.Öğe Exchange rate volatility and exports in Turkey(2009) Ozturk, Ilhan; Acaravci, AliThis paper examines the effects of exchange rate volatility on Turkish exports in the context of the moving average standard deviation (MASD) model over the monthly period of 1995-2005. The major results show that increases in the volatility of the real exchange rate, approximating exchange-rate uncertainty, exert a significant negative effect upon export demand in both the short-run and the long run.Öğe FDI, trade and growth in Turkey: Evidence from ARDL bounds testing approach(2010) Ozturk, Ilhan; Acaravci, AliDespite the increasing empirical literature on foreign direct investment (FDI)-led growth, export-led growth (ELG) and import-led growth (ILG) hypotheses, this study investigates the validity of the FDI-export-growth and FDI-import-growth hypotheses in Turkey by using quarterly time series data for 1998:1-2009:1 period. To examine these linkages, we use the two-step procedure from the Engle and Granger model: In the first step, we define the order of integration in series and explore the long run relationships among the variables by using four unit root tests and autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach of cointegration test, respectively. In the second step, we test causal relationships by using the error-correction based causality models. The ARDL bounds test reveals that there is an evidence of a long-run relationship between the FDI, import (IM) and real gross domestic product (GDP), but no evidence of a long-run relationship between the FDI, export (EX) and GDP in Turkey. According to the causality test results for GDP-IM-FDI equation, there is evidence of two-way (bidirectional) causality between GDP and IM, evidence of one-way (unidirectional) causality from FDI to GDP and evidence of one-way Granger causality from FDI to IM. The existence of unidirectional causal links suggests that FDI strategies should be designed to promote economic growth.Öğe FDI, TRADE AND GROWTH IN TURKEY: EVIDENCE FROM ARDL BOUNDS TESTING APPROACH(Wroclaw Univ Economics, 2010) Ozturk, Ilhan; Acaravci, AliDespite the increasing empirical literature on foreign direct investment (FDI)-led growth, export-led growth (ELG) and import-led growth (ILG) hypotheses, this study investigates the validity of the FDI-export-growth and FDI-import-growth hypotheses in Turkey by using quarterly time series data for 1998:1-2009:1 period. To examine these linkages, we use the two-step procedure from the Engle and Granger model: In the first step, we define the order of integration in series and explore the long run relationships among the variables by using four unit root tests and autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach of cointegration test, respectively. In the second step, we test causal relationships by using the error-correction based causality models. The ARDL bounds test reveals that there is an evidence of a long-run relationship between the FDI, import (IM) and real gross domestic product (GDP), but no evidence of a long-run relationship between the FDI, export (EX) and GDP in Turkey. According to the causality test results for GDP-IM-FDI equation, there is evidence of two-way (bidirectional) causality between GDP and IM, evidence of one-way (unidirectional) causality from FDI to GDP and evidence of one-way Granger causality from FDI to IM. The existence of unidirectional causal links suggests that FDI strategies should be designed to promote economic growth.Öğe FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: LITERATURE SURVEY AND EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM SUB-SAHARAN AFRICAN COUNTRIES(Aosis, 2009) Acaravci, Songul Kakilli; Ozturk, Ilhan; Acaravci, AliIn this paper we review the literature on the finance-growth nexus and investigate the causality between financial development and economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa for the period 1975-2005. Using panel co-integration and panel GMM estimation for causality, the results of the panel co-integration analysis provide evidence of no long-run relationship between financial development and economic growth. The empirical findings in the paper show a bi-directional causal relationship between the growth of real GDP per capita and the domestic credit provided by the banking sector for the panels of 24 sub-Saharan African countries. The findings imply that African countries can accelerate their economic growth by improving their financial systems and vice versa.Öğe Financial development and economic growth: Literature survey and empirical evidence from sub-Saharan African countries(AOSIS (pty) Ltd, 2009) Acaravci, Songul Kakilli; Ozturk, Ilhan; Acaravci, AliIn this paper we review the literature on the finance-growth nexus and investigate the causality between financial development and economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa for the period 1975-2005. Using panel co-integration and panel GMM estimation for causality, the results of the panel co-integration analysis provide evidence of no long-run relationship between financial development and economic growth. The empirical findings in the paper show a bi-directional causal relationship between the growth of real GDP per capita and the domestic credit provided by the banking sector for the panels of 24 sub-Saharan African countries. The findings imply that African countries can accelerate their economic growth by improving their financial systems and vice versa.Öğe Foreign direct investment, export and economic growth: Empirical evidence from new EU countries(2012) Acaravci, Ali; Ozturk, IlhanWhether foreign direct investment (FDI) is beneficial to host country growth or not is a question debated since a long time. This paper provides a survey of the literature on FDI, export and growth, and empirically investigates the causal relationship between economic growth, export and FDI for the ten transition European countries (Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovak Republic and Slovenia). The ARDL bounds testing approach is used to investigate the existance of long-run relationship between FDI, export and economic growth for these countries. After detection of cointegratin relationship, the error-correction based Granger causality test is employed to examine the both long-run and short-run causality issues between the variables by using quarterly data from 1994 to 2008. These causality results reveal that there is causal relationship between FDI, export and economic growth in four out of ten countries considered.Öğe FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT, EXPORT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM NEW EU COUNTRIES(Inst Economic Forecasting, 2012) Acaravci, Ali; Ozturk, IlhanWhether foreign direct investment (FDI) is beneficial to host country growth or not is a question debated since a long time. This paper provides a survey of the literature on FDI, export and growth, and empirically investigates the causal relationship between economic growth, export and FDI for the ten transition European countries (Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovak Republic and Slovenia). The ARDL bounds testing approach is used to investigate the existance of long-run relationship between FDI, export and economic growth for these countries. After detection of cointegratin relationship, the error-correction based Granger causality test is employed to examine the both long-run and short-run causality issues between the variables by using quarterly data from 1994 to 2008. These causality results reveal that there is causal relationship between FDI, export and economic growth in four out of ten countries considered.
