Doğu Akdeniz bölgesinde yağışların trend ve kurak dönem analizleri
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Dosyalar
Tarih
2016
Yazarlar
Dergi Başlığı
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Cilt Başlığı
Yayıncı
Hatay Mustafa Kemal Üniversitesi
Erişim Hakkı
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
Özet
Kuraklıkların tanımlanması, izlenmesi ve nitelendirilmesi, su kaynakları planlaması ve yönetimi için büyük önem taşımaktadır. Bu çalışmada Run teorisi ve Standart Yağış İndeksi (SPI) yöntemleri ile Doğu Akdeniz Bölgesi'nin yağışlara bağlı kuraklık özellikleri yerel ve bölgesel ölçekte araştırılmıştır. Bölgedeki 22 yağış gözlem istasyonu 1960-2015 yılları arasında yağış verileri ReDIM yazılımı kullanarak her iki yöntemle analiz edilmiştir. Run hesaplamaları 12 ay olarak SPI hesaplamaları 3 ay ve 12 aylık süreler için yapılmıştır. Yerel kuraklıkların belirlenmesi ve tanımlanmasından sonra bölge için kuraklık özelliklerinin ve kuraklık dönemlerinin belirlenmesine çalışılmıştır. Run teorisini kullanarak, bölgesel kuraklık, kuraklık süresi, bölgesel kümülatif su eksikliği, kuraklık şiddeti hesaplanmıştır. Kuraklık özellikleri ile ilgili bazı önemli sonuçlar ILWIS yazılımı kullanılarak haritalanmıştır. Yapılan 3 aylık SPI analizinde SPI<-1 şartında elde edilen sonuçlara göre en fazla kurak dönem sayısı 61 olarak Mersin daha sonra sırasıyla Karataş, Adana ve Kahramanmaraş olmuştur. En az kurak dönem sayısı ise 28 ile Osmaniye, 29 ile Pozantı'da görülmüştür. Yapılan 12 aylık SPI analizinde SPI<-1 şartında elde edilen sonuçlara göre kurak dönemlerin zaman olarak süreleri incelendiğinde 1 aylık süreye sahip kurak dönem sayısı en fazla 17 ile İskenderun, 13 ile Mersin, 12 İle Adana ve Karataş, 11 ile Yumurtalık ve Anamur'da görülmüştür. Bölgesel bazda; 3 aylık SPI analizi sonucunda 1 aylık kuraklık süresi 12 kez, 2 aylık kuraklık süresi 4 kez, 3 aylık kuraklık süresi 1 kez, 4 aylık kuraklık süresi 2 kez görülmüştür. 3 aylık SPI analiz sonuçları tarımsal kuraklığı ifade ettiğinden 2 ve 3 aylık süren kuraklıkların tarımsal açıdan büyük risk oluşturduğu dikkate alınmalıdır. Run yöntemi sonuçlarına göre, kuraklık şiddeti bölgesel bazda maksimum 185 mm/yıl, minimum 63 mm/yıl ve ortalama 116 mm/yıl olarak hesaplanmıştır. Bölgesel ortalama kuraklık şiddeti baz alındığında Afşin, Elbistan, Erdemli, Gaziantep, Göksun, İskenderun, Kilis, Mersin ve Silifke istasyonlarının ortalama kuraklık şiddetleri daha düşük bulunmuştur, diğer 11 istasyonda ise daha yüksek çıkmıştır
The identification, monitoring and characterisation of droughts are of great importance in water resources planning and management. In this study Local and regional scales about drought characteristics are studied for East Mediterrenean region of Turkey. The theory of runs and the SPI methodologies were applied by using ReDIM software. The two methodologies were applied at the local and regional scale using monthly rainfall data for the period of 1960-2015 from 22 weather stations in the region. 3-month and 12-month time were used for computation Run and SPI. After the identification and characterisation of local droughts, drought characteristics were derived for the region to identify regional drought periods, and to compute the regional coverage of drought and the drought magnitude. Using the theory of runs, the regional droughts were characterised by the duration, the cumulated areal water deficit, the intensity, and the mean regional coverage. Important outputs about drought caharactersitics were mapped by using ILWIS software. According to the results obtained from the condition SPI<-1 in the three-month SPI analysis, the ones with the biggest numbers of drought period were Mersin with 61 and Karataş, Adana and Kahramanmaraş respectively. The smallest numbers of drought period were obtained in Osmaniye and Pozantı with 28 and 29 respectively. Upon examination of the time duration of the drought periods according to the results attained on the condition SPI<-1 in the 12-month SPI analysis, the greatest numbers of drought period which lasted 1 month were found in İskenderun with 17, Mersin with 13, Adana and Karataş with 12, Yumurtalık and Anamur with 11. On a regional basis, as a result of the 3-month SPI analysis, 1-month period of drought was seen 12 times, 2-month period of drought was seen 4 times, 3-month period of drought was seen for once and 4-month period of drought was seen twice. Since the results of the 3-month SPI analysis mean agricultural drought, attention should be paid to the fact that droughts that last two or three months constitute a great risk in terms of agriculture. As per the results of the run method, the drought severity were regionally calculated as maximum of 185 mm/year, minimum of 63 mm/year and 116 mm/year on the average. On the basis of regional average drought severity, the stations of Afşin, Elbistan, Erdemli, Gaziantep, Göksun, İskenderun, Kilis, Mersin and Silifke were found to have lower average drought severity. The other 11 stations proved to have higher average drought severity.
The identification, monitoring and characterisation of droughts are of great importance in water resources planning and management. In this study Local and regional scales about drought characteristics are studied for East Mediterrenean region of Turkey. The theory of runs and the SPI methodologies were applied by using ReDIM software. The two methodologies were applied at the local and regional scale using monthly rainfall data for the period of 1960-2015 from 22 weather stations in the region. 3-month and 12-month time were used for computation Run and SPI. After the identification and characterisation of local droughts, drought characteristics were derived for the region to identify regional drought periods, and to compute the regional coverage of drought and the drought magnitude. Using the theory of runs, the regional droughts were characterised by the duration, the cumulated areal water deficit, the intensity, and the mean regional coverage. Important outputs about drought caharactersitics were mapped by using ILWIS software. According to the results obtained from the condition SPI<-1 in the three-month SPI analysis, the ones with the biggest numbers of drought period were Mersin with 61 and Karataş, Adana and Kahramanmaraş respectively. The smallest numbers of drought period were obtained in Osmaniye and Pozantı with 28 and 29 respectively. Upon examination of the time duration of the drought periods according to the results attained on the condition SPI<-1 in the 12-month SPI analysis, the greatest numbers of drought period which lasted 1 month were found in İskenderun with 17, Mersin with 13, Adana and Karataş with 12, Yumurtalık and Anamur with 11. On a regional basis, as a result of the 3-month SPI analysis, 1-month period of drought was seen 12 times, 2-month period of drought was seen 4 times, 3-month period of drought was seen for once and 4-month period of drought was seen twice. Since the results of the 3-month SPI analysis mean agricultural drought, attention should be paid to the fact that droughts that last two or three months constitute a great risk in terms of agriculture. As per the results of the run method, the drought severity were regionally calculated as maximum of 185 mm/year, minimum of 63 mm/year and 116 mm/year on the average. On the basis of regional average drought severity, the stations of Afşin, Elbistan, Erdemli, Gaziantep, Göksun, İskenderun, Kilis, Mersin and Silifke were found to have lower average drought severity. The other 11 stations proved to have higher average drought severity.
Açıklama
Anahtar Kelimeler
Ziraat, Agriculture
